From the Fields: Is the price right?

Well, first off I apologize I missed my deadline for last week’s article. We have been working like crazy trying to take advantage of every window we could to get done before more bad weather set in. We try not to work on Sundays, but this year has been a different story. We had a small window of decent weather, so we hammered out corn and ran all but 80 acres of our double crops. I had a 2-acre strip at home I planted the same day as our remaining 80 acres on July 28. We harvested that strip with the remaining beans around it and the strip was 18% and the others were 11%, so we knew we would be leaving that field for dead last.

Yields on beans were very strong as we raised some of the best beans we ever have. I have to give a lot of credit to our nemesis, Mother Nature, on the rains that we had all year, but the strong genetics and treatment package from Merschman Seeds was a big component to our success, as well. Our plot was really strong posting some big numbers that was shocking to us. Even the double crops that we planted later than normal were excellent, which surprised us considering what they went through. All in all it was a great year for soybeans.

Corn is complete with all our bins full to the gills and quite a bit hauled into town. I took a big sigh of relief as we finally finished up the last pass of corn as the rain was coming down. Corn performance was really good and we had some new hybrids that really shined this year. We have some strong agronomics in our lineup and it really packed a punch with yield again this year proving how good the LG Seeds genetics really are. We plan on finishing up sometime this week on the double crop field even if we have to dry them now that all the corn is dry and in the bins we won’t have to clean out again to do this last field. Rain and snow flurries have moved in so time is of the essence on getting this last bit done.

The last report absolutely shocked me. I figured with all the chatter I had heard and read about that the U.S. Department of Agriculture would raise the yield again by at least a bushel, but to my dismay they lowered it a half a bushel. Throwing green back up on the board and rolling question into how long this will keep going. It makes it so hard to come up with a good marketing plan for unpriced bushels and really makes you think about prices looking into the next year. All I know is it’s a crazy time and prices continue to stay strong. It’s hard not to take advantage of some of this before the train leaves the station. I just wish I had that crystal ball to look and see what to do on pricing grain for next harvest season.

Yes, seed orders have started coming in again for 2022. The thing I see the most that’s going to be hard is the uncertainty in the marketplace and input pricing. Guys usually stick to a 50/50 rotation or close to it. But with record high nitrogen prices I could see more bean acres for next year. That being said, if we intend to plant a record bean crop, corn will surely rally to try and gain some strong sales to lock in acres to cover the needs. I think where guys have good acres to plant corn they need to focus on planting those acres to corn even if that means corn on corn. I just feel like the marginal acres that have a good chance of not producing above Actual Production History will be a safer play to plant to beans. I don’t see input pricing going down anytime soon and the shortages will keep prices high and to the highest bidder.

The one variable I’m telling guys now is you can lock in your seed prices and buy something you can actually attain if you feel safer having it in your possession. I have talked to several guys across a big geography that say even if they prepay for chemical, fertilizer and so forth now they are not getting a guarantee they will be able to get it nor even have possession of it come springtime. That, my friends, is scary. I think cash is king going into next year and we might have to pay as we go on some things and we might not have the luxury to price around on like we normally can. If you have the ability to get your seed purchases done before January, I would, and make plans with your seed adviser to switch acres fast if need be to corn or beans depending on input shortages and prices as we move forward to 2022.

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like to chat about seed plans for your farm. We would be happy to give you options and opinions from what we see going on in our part of the industry. I hope everyone can finish up before we experience even more bad weather and be alert on what’s going on. I think smart strategies will play an even bigger roll going into 2022. We might be in a new frontier as far as what we can and cannot do that should keep us all on our toes for 2022. Good luck and hope everyone stays safe.